Election latest: SNP to launch manifesto later this morning (2024)

Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, is speaking to Sky News this morning.

He welcomes inflation returning to the 2% target as a "significant moment".

Mr Stride claims it shows the Conservative Party can be trusted with the economy.

Controlling inflation is the responsibility of the Bank of England, although the government sets the target of 2%.

Challenged that inflation is nothing to do with the government, Mr Stride says Downing Street has to take decisions like whether to raise public sector pay that can have inflationary impacts.

Sky's Kay Burley points out that when inflation was high, the government was saying it was not their responsibility.

Mr Stride says that while there was a big inflation shock that impacted economies across the world, how individual countries responded shows the competency of different governments.

The rate of inflation dropped to 2% in May - down from 2.3% in April and ending a three-year battle to return price rises to target levels.

It hasn't been this low since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

A drop to 2% had been forecast in a poll of economists by Bloomberg.

The target for the headline CPI figure is 2% - set by the Bank of England and central banks across the world.

Economists think the Bank of England will still want more evidence inflation is sustainably under control before cutting interest rates - with a hold at 5.25% widely expected tomorrow before a potential cut in August.

Rates are kept high in order to tame inflation by squeezing the economy.

You can read more about the inflation rise in our Money blog.

The latest in a series of YouGov and Sky News MRP polls is set to be published at 5pm today.

It is an MRP (multiple regression and post stratification) poll.

This is the first time we have gathered the data since candidates were confirmed, and manifestos were launched.

It is also the first poll since Reform's Nigel Farage said he would stand at the election.

Sky News'deputy political editor Sam Coates says: "We've had lots of them from other parties, but I think YouGov is the gold standard, which is why we use them here on Sky News.

"And it will tell us basically how the campaign has been going for the political parties.

"So we'll be looking to see whether it's been getting better for the Tories since Rishi Sunak launched the campaign - or maybe worse - and how Labour are fairing.

"And what is going on in Scotland today, of course, with the SNP launching their manifesto.

"And what about the smaller parties? Are they benefiting for some unpopularity of Keir Starmer?

"So one of these big campaign moments at 5pm today."

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country - even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can't do is account for very specific local factors - such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people's opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

By Faye Brown, political reporter

The general election may be "the last chance" to fix the UK's "broken renting system", housing organisations have warned as they called on party leaders to come up with bolder solutions to the crisis.

In an open letter to Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, groups representing tenants said thousands more people "face homelessness, poverty and exploitation" unless a "serious policy offer" is put on the table.

It comes as one renter told Sky News how he has been priced out of his home following a 40% increase in rent - despite the flat having "an excessive mould issue".

The groups, including the New Economics Foundation (NEF) and Generation Rent, want all party leaders to commit to rent controls, a full ban on no-fault evictions and greater investment in social housing.

In the letter, shared exclusively with Sky News, they said: "As organisations representing and working with tens of thousands of private renters across the UK, we are warning the next government that the housing emergency is set to deepen unless major action is taken as part of a serious housing policy offer.

"This could be the last chance to fix our broken renting system before countless more renters face homelessness, poverty and exploitation. "

Read the full story here:

Welcome back to the Politics Hub.

Today is a big day in the election for Scotland, with the SNP launching its election manifesto this morning.

The nationalist party is looking to turn around its fortunes after being gripped by scandal and controversy over the past few years.

John Swinney - who is not standing for a seat in Westminster - will be unveiling the plans today, in which he will call for a boost to UK-wide NHS funds by around £10bn to trigger a £1.6bn increase in Scotland.

Mr Swinney is the party's third leader in just over 14 months, after Nicola Sturgeon stood aside, to be replaced by Humza Yousaf.

Since standing down, Ms Sturgeon has been arrested - and released without charge - as part of a police probe into SNP finances.

While still in office, she unsuccessfully challenged the UK government in the courts over whether Scotland could unilaterally call a referendum, and legislation around loosening gender reform requirements.

Mr Yousaf stood down earlier this year after he collapsed the party's coalition at Holyrood with the Green Party.

In Westminster, the latest poll from Ipsos shows the SNP getting 15 seats - with a range of 13 to 23 likely - as it fights off gains from the Labour Party.

This is noticeably down from the 48 they won in 2019.

Ahead of the launch, Mr Swinney said: "The SNP manifesto will set out a different approach in line with Scotland’s centre-left values – with an end to Westminster cuts and a major new investment in our health service."

Stewart Hosie, the SNP's campaign director, will be speaking to Sky News just after 8am.

Also on this morning will be:

• Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride at 7.15am;
• Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves at 7.30am.

Thank you for following our live political coverage as the general election campaign continues.

Please see our 10pm bulletin for the key points of the day's news.

Join us again tomorrow from 7am for the latest political updates.

Earlier we brought you the breaking news that billionaire Tory donor John Caudwell had endorsed Labour (see 7.31pm post).

The Phones4U founder said the "failures" of the three prime ministers in government since then, alongside Labour's "transformation" under leader Sir Keir Starmer had led him to switch allegiance for the first time in his life.

You can read more about his decisionhere...

It's 10pm and here is your rundown for today's political news...

• The Conservative Party is heading for its worst electoral defeat in history, according to a poll of almost 20,000 people;
• The Ipsos poll also suggestedNigel Farage will win Clacton from the Tories, overturning the incumbent party's huge majority there;
• It estimatedLabour could win 453 seats, while the Conservatives would take just 115, giving Sir Keir Starmer's party a 256-seat majority;
• The result would meansenior Tory figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats;
• Our chief political correspondent Jon Craigsaid the poll is "terrible news" for the Tories;
• Meanwhile former Conservative Party donor John Caudwell has announced he is endorsing and voting for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party.

• Our weeknight politics show Politics Hub With Sophy Ridgefocused on the issue of immigration, with Labour's shadow equalities secretary Anneliese Dodds saying the country needs a "clear plan" to tackle migration;
• During the panel discussionJim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour, saida Labour policy that may work to reduce immigration is "dealing with the gangs in the same way you would deal with terrorists";
• And former Conservative MP Philip Dunne said the government's Rwanda scheme is a "deterrent" for illegal immigration, but said the UK and France need to cooperate more.

• In Scotland, Anas Sarwarhas today launched Scottish Labour's manifesto, with a focus on improving the future for young people in the country;
• He also confirmed that Scottish Labour is against the two-child benefit cap, despite there being no plans to scrap the measure if Labour wins the keys to Downing Street.
• Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey was in Eastleigh, where he discussed sewage - and claimed the Tories would "fail in opposition" just as he says they have in government;
• And on a day of special coverage of the migration crisis here on Sky News, an exclusive poll suggested more Britons think immigration has had a negative impact on society than positive.

Here are some other stories you might find interesting:

On the Sky News Daily podcast,Niall Paterson is joined by community correspondent Becky Johnsonto discuss what voters think about elections, while economics and data editor Ed Conway digs into the statistics to reveal exactly how big an impact migration, both legal and illegal, has on the UK.

Covering a general election campaign as a journalist can largely be summed up in two words - battle bus.

Not too dissimilar to the coaches that rockstars use for their tours, battle buses are the vehicles each political party uses to transport their leaders, candidates, and advisers around the country during the election campaign.

Sky's political correspondents have each been following a different party - often joining them on the buses.

Here we take you behind the scenes on the campaign trail for the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats.

By Faye Brown, political reporter

Rishi Sunak's "soaring" personal wealth has come under fresh attack ahead of crucial inflation figures coming out tomorrow.

In what will be a key moment in the election campaign, the rate of inflation is expected to ease back to the Bank of England's target of 2% for the first time since spring 2021.

The figures could provide a much needed boost for the embattled prime minister, whose key offering to voters is that the economy has "turned a corner" under his leadership and they should not risk change with Labour.

But the Labour Party says this claim is "rubbished" by data showing more than half of Brits think the cost of living crisis has become worse in the last month.

The party says that Mr Sunak's wealth increased by £122m in the last year, while data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows millions of people continue to struggle.

Read more below: